KSM hosts Annual North Korea’s New Year Address and Outlook Forum online
작성자/Author
관리자
작성일/Date
2022-01-21 15:14
조회/Views
711
Heralding the onset of 2022, the Korean Sharing Movement hosted their annual forum discussing prospects for inter-Korean and U.S.-DPRK relations, and North Korean domestic policy for the coming year. The <North Korea New Year's Address and Outlook> debate, first hosted in 2008 and now in its fifteenth consecutive year, was co-hosted by the Ehwa Women's University Unification Research Institute and KSM’s Peace & Sharing Center. As in the past two years, Kim Jong-Un did not deliver a New Year's address this year, so the debate focused on the analysis of the 4th plenary meeting of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea held at the end of last year and the outlook for 2022. The debate was held online in accordance with local COVID-19 prevention guidelines.
KSM Co-Standing Chairman Choi Wankyu, and Ehwa Institute Director Cho Dongho provided welcoming remarks for the debate. Ehwa University Honorary Professor, Choi Daesok was the chair for the proceedings. Professors Jin Heekwan from Inje University, Yang Moonsu from the University of North Korean Studies, and Park Choengchul from Daejon University provided the presentations with Kim Gabsik from the Unification Research Institute, Park Heejin from Donguk University, Kim Yongho from Yonsei University, and KSM’s Secretary-General Hong Sangyong making up the panel of discussants.
Professor Jin Heekwan provided the presentation regarding political and military affairs from the plenary session and the outlook for 2022. Jin picked up on signals that North Korea positively evaluated party organizational discipline, the defense industry, and also many young people’s eagerness to volunteer for difficult work in coal mines in 2021. He pointed to a struggle with non-socialist and anti-socialist elements as a key focal point for national projects in 2022. The promotion of social order and the people's well-being, strengthening law-abiding spirit and with it the socialist legal system, were also mentioned as goals for the coming year. Reinforcing the ideological and military capabilities of the army and civil defense, as well as modernization and the upgrade of science and autonomy in the defense industry were set as targets for the defense sector in 2022.
Professor Yang Moonsu, presenting on the economic and social sectors, quoted North Korea comprehensively evaluating 2021 as a "great year of victory that opened the door for a grand change in the full development of socialism despite the presence of severe obstacles," stressing North Korea’s emphasis on citizens' loyalty and patriotism in helping to achieve successes in self-reliance, particularly in the agricultural and construction sectors. 2021 was the first year of the North's latest five-year plan and the 10th anniversary of Chairman Kim Jong-un's rule. It is hard therefore, to rule out the possibility that the reality of these milestones necessitated such a positive self-evaluation of 2021. Nevertheless it is also noteworthy that food production increased significantly from 2020 (at 4 million 690 thousand tons in 2021 a rise of 7% equating to an increase of 290 thousand tons from 2020). In 2022, it is forecast that North Korea will focus on attempting to provide tangible improvements to the lives of the people through economic growth brought about with the implementation of the five-year plan in core industries.
Professor Park presented on the international and South Korean relations part of the forum and by all respects had the hardest task of the panel. Park started by highlighting that North Korean reports on the plenary session provided no specific details about what was discussed regarding international and South Korea policies. The North reported that "A series of tactical directions were presented in line with principles that need to be adhered to in response to ongoing changes in the international and surrounding environment”. Park interpreted this as meaning that the North would initially focus on economic issues domestically and understands the international situation as being fluid at present. It was noted that there is South Korea's presidential election, the Beijing Winter Olympics, an ongoing discussion regarding an end of war declaration, joint ROK and U.S. military drills etc.. According to Park’s forecast for 2022, the resumption of inter-Korean dialogue and talks with the U.S. will depend on the results of South Korea's presidential election in March and the U.S. midterm election in November. As a result, it is expected that the current deadlock will continue for the time being. Humanitarian cooperation in the form of large-scale food aid and COVID-19 vaccine support could be promoted, but will depends on the global and regional COVID-19 situation, and it was argued that North Korea would prefer to cooperate with international organizations initially rather than bilaterally with other states. Whilst closing proceedings after the presentations and discussion, forum chair Choi stressed that the general outlook for North Korea and relations with the North in 2022 does not appear to be very bright, but that this should encourage people to seek new ways to improve inter-Korean relations and engage in cooperation with North Korea. Despite the fact that the forum was hosted online, more than 180 viewers tuned in live to watch the debate.
