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KSM Hosts “2021 DPRK Prospects for the Year” Panel Discussion

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2021-01-12 17:27
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On Monday January 4th KSM hosted their annual New Year’s panel discussion about prospects for inter-Korean relations. KSM has hosted this panel discussion every year since 2008. With this year being the second in a row that there was no New Year’s address from the North, the discussion encompassed a broader outlook on the prospects for the year. In line with social distancing regulations in Seoul, the panel discussion was hosted on youtube rather than having a live audience as  had been the case previously.

Professor Wankyu Choi, one of KSM’s co-standing presidents, opened the event with welcoming remarks. Professor Choi has been a KSM co-standing president since 2008 and was a part of the South’s official delegation with President Moon for the Pyeongyang inter-Korean summit in 2018. Byeongro Kim, head of Seoul National University’s Institute for Peace and Unification Studies, presided over the discussions as chair and Professor Jeoncheol Lee from Soongsil University gave the main presentation. Five discussants including KSM’s Secretary-General Sangyoung Hong were also in attendance to debate what we may be likely to see unfold this year on the Korean Peninsula.

Professor Lee predicted that the DPRK’s 8th Worker’s Party Congress would focus on economic issues in light of North Korea’s need to navigate out of several difficult situations. He also pointed out that even though the 7th Party Congress officially adopted the byungjin policy of parallel focus on economic and military goals, in reality it too had effectively focused on issues of economic development. Lee discussed several possible scenarios for the year including possible clashes if North Korea is overlooked by the U.S. despite the north's willingness to engage, provocations from North Korean to draw attention, or the possibility of active negotiations if the incoming Biden administration shows it is minded to engage in arms control discussions. Professor Lee emphasized the importance of the South Korean government trying to shape responses to each scenario and also the prospect of diplomacy surrounding either the upcoming Tokyo or next year's Beijing Olympics (COVID-19 permitting).



In his comments KSM Secretary-General Sangyoung Hong emphasized the proven role that South Korean civil society can play in shaping breakthroughs in inter-Korean relations. He also spoke about the UN’s increasing provision of sanctions exemptions for humanitarian projects in the DPRK and how this contextual space could be widened to envelop humanitarian focused development cooperation projects in the near future.

The other discussants focused their comments on a few various issues. There was a weighing up of the possibilities of strengthened DPRK-China relations or increased DPRK emphasis on “self-sufficiency”. Another discussant spoke about the possible changes in U.S. negotiating postures and whether the Biden administration would employ a less top-down approach to negotiations with North Korea. COVID-19 vaccine diplomacy, international sanctions, North Korea’s tourism promotion policy and the DPRK’s economic strategy were all also covered in the wide ranging two hour debate.

It was not just a lively debate for those on the stage with plenty of questions coming in from those watching on youtube. Several questions focused on the various roles and possible responses of China and the U.S to developments in North Korean policy.

The final question asked what South Korea, rather than other countries, should actively be doing to improve inter-Korean relations. Bringing proceedings to a close, Byeongro Kim replied with the following remarks. The three spokes of security, a peace regime, and inter-Korean cooperation should not be approached sequentially but a strategic approach that deals with these three factors simultaneously needs to be found. He commented that this would be the task facing those that are working for peace on the Korean Peninsula this year.


KSM’s panel discussion drew a lot of attention from academia, civil society, and members of the public interested in inter-Korean relations. It proved to be a good primer preceding the 8th Party Congress to think about the changes that could emerge as this year unfolds. KSM utilized the panel discussion to kick off this year’s events and moving forward will continue to host policy discussions that bring together varied opinions on inter-Korean relations as well as providing a voice advocating the role of civil society in the Korean peace process.